Copa del Rey (Spanish Cup)

I've just been working through the mid-week Carling Cup matches and it set me thinking about 'Cup' matches as opposed to 'League' matches, and how the difference might be exploited.


I'll post a separate Carling Cup page shortly, but in the meantime I was struck by the prices of a Spanish Cup match (Copa del Rey).

Alcorcon are playing at home to Real Madrid tonight (27th October). Now Alcorcon are in the 2nd Division of Spanish football and Real Madrid are...well everyone knows who they are.

What sort of price would you expect for a Real Madrid victory? I would think you should be looking at 1.2 to 1.3, something in that area. On Betfair they are currently trading at 1.49 to Back and 1.5 to Lay. Everything we all assume should tell us that if we believe Real Madrid's price to be 1.3 maximum (which I would maintain is a fair reflection on the relevant standings of the teams) then we should all lump on at the 'value' odds of 1.49.

Let's (for a moment) look a little bit deeper. We need to consider why everyone isn't backing them at this standout price? After all, Betfair is a free market economy. Just to put this into context, they are priced up at around the same price that Spurs were to beat Stoke on Saturday, and Man City were to beat Fulham on Sunday (and these are teams in the same league). Therefore 1.49 looks like a gift, and you know what they say; never look a gift horse in the mouth.

Because Betfair is a free market, then there is obvious resistance to Real Madrid's chances, and we need to see if there are valid reasons for this.

The Copa del Rey matches are played over two legs. Real Madrid would be expected to win at home against such lowly opposition, therefore they might not feel the need to go all-out to impress in the away leg.

Conversely, Alcorcon could see this as a way of achieving a modicum of glory (think FA Cup giant killers). They may not have any great expectation of knocking Real Madrid out over two legs, but a home draw would be a 'good' result for them.

This really defines the sort of bets I am trying to make. Going against the expected when there are valid reasons that the 'unthinkable' might actually happen.

My bet for this would be to Lay Real Madrid at 1.5, but I would want to keep liability reasonably low at 2 points. If you bet in £5 units this would mean a £20 Lay (4 points) @ 1.5 for a £10 liability.

It may appear speculative and Real Madrid may romp home, but by finding opportunities like this on a regular basis we are looking to make long-term profits.